Giuliani’s new strategery: Win New Hampshire
Posted on October 29th, 2007 at 3:46 pm by David Kaiser, EditorRudy’s plan has been an unconventional one since the beginning: ignore the traditional early states like Iowa and New Hampshire and go out and win the delegate rich states like New York, Florida and California. Seems logical enough, except that his campaign team has forgotten the first rule of political fight club. There is no logic in presidential politics.
While there may be no logic, there is history to examine, and one fact that Team Rudy may have uncovered is that only once in the last 40 years has a candidate won the first two states - Iowa and New Hampshire - and failed to win the nomination. (Trivia question - who was it?)
An article on Politico talks about the factors behind Giuliani’s change of heart on an early race and it appears to come down two factors:
The shift in strategy is motivated by both opportunity and fear.
The fear is letting Mitt Romney sweep Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan and gaining a level of momentum that Rudy potentially could not counter on Super-Duper Tuesday.
The opportunity is the fact that Romney, despite spending buckets of money in New Hampshire, is not quite running away in the polls. In fact, as recently as July, several polls had Romney up by as many as 16 points. Some recent polls have his lead at 10 points or even as low as 6.
The funniest part about this whole scenario is the fact that New Hampshire hasn’t even officially set the date for its primary:
While most in the state expect it to be held on or around Jan. 8, Secretary of State William Gardner — who has unilateral discretion over when to schedule the primary — could still move it up to December, before the Iowa caucuses.
If Giuliani can pull a Grinch and steal New Hampshire from Romney while he’s sleeping, it would be a serious blow to Mitt’s plan to sweep the first three and ride the wave of momentum to the nomination.
21 Comments
Leave a comment
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
In the 1980s, before he became the Mayor of America, Rudy Giuliani narrowly escaped a death plot hatched by John Gotti, who ran the Gambino mafia family. Pravda newscaster Martha MacCallum asks viewers: “In terms of Rudy Giuliani and his presidential aspirations, does this help him, this story? Does it make him, you know, even more, sort of, invincible?”
Look, just because Rudy Giuliani descends among us as Maitreya, the Buddha of the Future, he nevertheless might choose NOT to give verbal teachings. Instead he might work for sentient beings by sending beams of light from his holy body.
After a huge endorsement today from Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH), Politico, NRO, and Townhall are all agreeing that Romney is a shoe-in to win New Hampshire!
Every GOP candidate has sought to get Sen. Gregg’s backing knowing that if they do get him on their side, it nearly guarantees a win for the nomination in NH.
Also, the latest poll out of the University of Iowa shows Romney’s lead widening.
Romney ~ 36
Giuliani ~ 13
Huckabee ~ 13
Thompson ~ 11
McCain ~ 6
Yup,
Romney will make history, after winning IA and NH and then losing all the other states.
Rudy, Rudy, Rudy!
Wow. Rudy is so sharp!
Now, Rudy sees he needs to actually
win an early primary? Whodahthunkit?
This feat of intellectual prowess simply
leaves me speechless and without rhyme.
He is still a New Yorker and he is still
a liberal and I still would not cross the
street to shake his hand.
Whodat not moved by tricks or liberals et al
Holy crap! Jacosta’s back?!?
Did you know Shimmy had his own show?
http://www.theshimmyshow.com
I’m still not buying the anointment of Mitt as much as Hannity wants him to win.
There is a reason why people begged Fred Thompson to run.. they didn’t like the choices handed to them.
Mitt will always, to me, be the canidate that did the Kerry flipflop. I can’t trust someone who throws away thier convictions just to make a run at the White House.
Mitt has to win New Hampshire being it is a neighboring state. It is very revealing that to do this he has to spend big $$ just for a neighboring state.
Fred has to win South Carolina because of the Southern affiliation.
Rudy just has to win somewhere besides New York.
Rudy is leading in all of the major early primary states, like NY,NJ,FL,CA, and IL.
California alone has more 7 times the number of delegates of NH.
Rudy is going to win this thing big time.
Troy - seriously - WHAT flip-flop? Why are you allowing Democrats to define our candidates?
Each and every specious charge has been asked and answered over and over.
A new poll now show Mitt leading in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. This is exactly how it is done. Romney is on his way to the nomination. The national polls are historically meaningless.
From Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire:
The American Research Group released new surveys of the presidential races in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
Among Republicans:
Iowa: Romney 27%, Huckabee 19%, Giuliani 16%, McCain 14%
New Hampshire: Romney 30%, Giuliani 23%, McCain 17%
South Carolina: Romney 29%, Giuliani 23%, McCain 13%, Thompson 10%
The only polls that show you the real goods are stripper polls.
Ron,
Romney is playing old school politics. I don’t think he is going to be able to buy enough votes on Super Tuesday.
California alone has more delegates than Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina combined.
Rudy is also leading in all of the major early primary states, like NY,NJ,FL,and IL.
Did you know Shimmy had his own show?
http://www.theshimmyshow.com
That’s not me.
I’m beautiful and they’re not.
Do bats fly into their mouths?
Is that a goldfish under the rug?
Oh, please.
TL,
Of course the large states have more candidates. But what you are ignoring is the fact that the only reason Rudy is leading in those and other places, is that he has high name ID. That will change immediately and drastically once Romney wins the first 3-5 contests (he leads in Nevada and Michigan also). Another interesting trend is that the more people get to know Rudy, the less likely they are to support him. The opposite is true with Romney. Rudy’s candidacy (like Hillary’s on the Democratic side) is based entirely on celebrity. If he had not had the fortunate distinction of being the mayor of NYC on 9/11, we would not be having this conversation.
The way the primary game is played, is to win the early states. The reason that this works, and the reason that it is good for democracy, is that these early states provide a microcosm where the candidates can go and debate, and spread their message, and let the voters decide. The simple fact is, that Romney’s message has resonated in the early state microcosms, while Rudy’s has fallen flat.
Our country is far too large for an effective presentation of candidates to occur on a national stage. National polls do not accurately reflect the real strength of the candidates in the eyes of the electorate. Only the early state polls show that.
History has shown time and time again, that candidates who ultimately win the nomination are those who show strongly in the early states–not those who poll well nationally. When the first few victories occur, the media and the money follow the winner, with the nationwide primary voters casting their ballots accordingly. In other words, the national electorate has grown accustomed to letting the early states do their market research for them, as it were, and when it comes time to make the purchase, they follow the early state lead, and “spend” their votes on the proven winner.
Um, wow. Ron pretty much nailed that. Careful dude, we’re not used to that much sanity, logic and rational on this site
Ron makes some great points. The one unknown is that we’ve never had a schedule quite like before. Rudy is clearly going to win some of these states., though not the early ones, and that could present an interesting two-horse race that lasts longer than most.
Do bats fly in your mouth Shimmy? Are you really Mrs. Clinton?
You people are idiots and are clearly not paying very good attention to this race.
Read Jay Cost’s new piece on this on RCP and then put your foot in your mouth.
Romney campaigned heavily there to catapult to the top so the media would treat him as a first-tier candidate. NO ONE ELSE campaigned heavily there in the same way as Romney did because the real campaign just started!
[…] Giuliani pulling ads in New Hampshire David Kaiser Back in October, I wrote a piece on the Giuliani campaign’s strategery shift to contend in New Hampshire. […]
owner finance contract
Lots of caching: I compute the masks for each piece at each rotation at each location once and use this set for doing the comparisons (there are non- trivial difference for even and odd rows). Since there are only (pieces* rotations* locations) possibi…
roatan real estate
800 Directory- free toll, 800, 888, 877, and 866 listings of businesses, number and type of companies, regardless of long distance calls. Yellow page advertising, Web pages and banners are available. 888 internet 800 Directory, toll free, tollfree, 888…