2008 Power Rankings: September 18th, 2007

By Jason Wright, Editor

Filed Under Power Rankings Only 2008, Race for White House 2008 on Sep 17 

Welcome to the latest edition of PoliticalDerby.com’s 2008 Power Rankings, the original tracking service in the current race for the White House. The rankings are updated as circumstances warrant and are compiled by our Editor and contributors using wire reports, polls, campaign staffer scuttlebutt and confidential tips.

As a reminder, we’ve trimmed the number of ranked horses from 10 to 5. You’ll find the long-odds horses in the “Others receiving votes” category. A public outcry might encourage us to change our minds, but at this stage of the race it seems obvious the bottom tier horses are running for issue advocacy.

And now off to the races!

The DEM Horse Tip Sheet
Rankings last updated: September 17, 2007
Power Ranking The Horse Momentum The Tip Sheet
1 Hillary Clinton Clinton Up Hillary is running strong and demonstrating her husband’s uncanny knack for brushing off controversy. One of her chief bundlers, Prisoner Hsu, decides to break the law, skip bail, run to Colorado, board a train and hug himself until he’s recognized and busted. But did voters care? Negative. No blood. No foul. Political junkies want a battle: Hillary vs. Obama, Kanye vs. 50 Cent, Gore vs. A Weight Loss Program. But right now they’re getting Hillary running virtually unchallenged. (previous ranking: #1)
2 Barack Obama Obama Even Oprahbamafest ‘07 was a huge financial success and none of the dough–so far–has been returned because it came from fugitives. With Oprah on his side, Obama could have the widest stance in recorded history and still pull a huge percentage of the womens’ vote. And she couldn’t have shown up at a better time, Oprah is like a get-out-of-jail-free card for Obama’s incompetent foreign policy statements. (previous ranking: #2)
3 John Edwards Edwards Even Edwards has bounced a bit in recent polls, but he’s still so far behind the front-runners they don’t even bother looking over their shoulders anymore. With ideas like his panned International Anti-Terrorism Agency, he’s fast approaching Bill Richardson levels of relevancy. The best news for the media is that Edwards shows no signs of dropping out or giving in, and the longer he runs the crazier he could get. Write it down: John Edwards could be the Mike Gravel of 2012. (previous ranking: #4)
4 Chris Dodd Biden Up The Senator from Connecticut picked up the endorsement from the Fire Fighter’s Union. With that he quickly went from the out-of-focus, white-haired but clean-shaven Santa in the background of debate clips who no one knows, to the out-of-focus white-haired clean-shaven Santa in the background of debate clips who is endorsed by the Fire Fighter’s Union. Still, he displaces Biden in the Top 5, and that must bring the Jolly Senator and his elves great satisfaction. (previous ranking: #6)
5 Bill Richardson Richardson Down If Bill Richardson were any less relevant he’d be Katie Couric. His failure to catch fire, or even a flicker for that matter, is the one of the biggest surprises of Campaign ‘08. Then again, when you suggest God wants Iowa to go first on the nomination calendar, maybe you deserve to be mired in the 3% mud. (previous ranking: #3)
Others receiving votes: Joe Biden, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich

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The GOP Horse Tip Sheet
Rankings last updated: September 17, 2007
Power Ranking The Horse Momentum The Tip Sheet
1 Fred Thompson Fred Thompson Up Welcome to the top, Freddy T. He assumes the top spot on the strength of stronger-than-expected poll numbers after his bungled campaign launch. He’s bounced to a 9-point lead over Rudy in daily tracking polls. Clearly his Leno gamble doesn’t seem to have bothered anyone but his green-eyed republican opponents. Still, Fred’s publicly scrutinized performance has been only slightly better than Britney’s fat-dance at the MTV Video Music Awards. Thank goodness Fred wears suits. (previous ranking: #3)
2 Rudy Giuliani Giuliani Down Rudy is still the national leader in the overall poll averages, but his numbers have been mostly stagnant since leveling off in May. He now appears to be running as the presumptive nominee, adopting an ignore-everyone-but-Hillary strategy. Will that work now that Fred is official? And when will he endorse McCain? With all the praise he pours on the Arizona senator, it seems almost inevitable whether Rudy drops out or not. (previous ranking: #2)
3 Mitt Romney Romney Down Ouch. Romney fought his way into first place only to lose it to someone who wasn’t even officially running a month ago. With Mitt’s luck he’ll claw his way back to the top only to have Newt Gingrich enter the race 7 minutes later and knock him right back out again. The “Ames Bump” has disappeared and he’s once again running fourth, behind McCain. But take heart, Heart Throb, you’re still leading Iowa and NH comfortably. (previous ranking: #1)
4 John McCain McCain Up If there’s one thing McCain knows – besides how to chap the hides of conservatives – it’s how to fight. Who would’ve thought that calling a kid a jerk and teasing him about being drafted would be the spark needed to re-ignite his campaign? It’s too early to gauge whether he can recover fully from Immigrationgate, but the crusty old fighter pilot seemingly still knows how to pull up from a nose-dive. (previous ranking: tied for #5)
5 Mike Huckabee Huckabee Down How do you go from an also-ran to a contender? Follow the Huckabee model. How do you go from a contender back to an also-ran? Follow the Huckabee model’s second step: Call for a nation-wide smoking ban. Just because you’ve gotten healthy doesn’t mean the nation, especially Republican primary voters, want to elect Richard Simmons. The party of individual rights is not very likely to elect someone who wants to take the ideas of big city Democratic mayors nationwide. (previous ranking: #4)
Others receiving votes: Sam Brownback, Newt Gingrich, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo

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Comments

10 Comments

  1. ThatLibertarianGuy on 18.09.2007 at 00:50 (Reply)

    Fred Thompson!?

    How, pray tell, does he scramble together the delegates needed to win the nomination?

    Power Rankings should indicate how likely a candidate is to win the nomination. That means delegates. Rudy Giuliani is best positioned to win the delegates needed, as of right now. Fred Thompson has no appeal outside of the South. He’s in 4th place in New Hampshire and 3rd or 4th (depending on the poll) in Iowa. He’s tied with Giuliani in South Carolina and he’s typically second to Giuliani in Florida. He has no leads anywhere except in some Southern states.

    Please tell me how he gets the nomination in those circumstances, where he has no momentum from early states and where he has no appeal outside of the South, which alone cannot win him the delegates needed to get the nomination?

  2. Anthony Palmer on 18.09.2007 at 08:09 (Reply)

    Are you really sure that Dodd is ranked ahead of Biden? From what I’ve been reading, Biden has been raking up endorsements from senior Iowa legislators, had a strong presence at the Harkin Steak Fry, and is polling better than Dodd in Iowa’s polls. His Iraq proposal seems to be the most credible one out there and I think voters and other candidates are signing onto that. Yes, Dodd did get the firefighters’ endorsement, but is he generating any buzz? I agree with the placement of your top 3 horses, but I’d rank Richardson fourth (and losing momentum fast) and Biden fifth (gaining momentum).

    I generally agree with your Republican rankings, though I can’t help but feel that even with Thompson in the race, there’s still a void. His comments on the Terri Schiavo case are definitely revealing. Could he really be nothing more than a flash in the pan? The more I look at Thompson, Giuliani, and Romney, the more I wonder if McCain will really win this thing after all…

  3. Stephen on 18.09.2007 at 11:51 (Reply)

    The Hillary Prisoner scandal is not catching fire because no one is reporting on it, if it was any of the other candidates it would be covered for weeks and weeks, and then brought up again when the news slowed down.
    BTW .. Obama has made no foreign policy blunders, his plans are ten times better then the status quo.

  4. David Kaiser on 18.09.2007 at 12:54 (Reply)

    “Obama has made no foreign policy blunders”

    That statement reminds me of another one:

    “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and there never will be under a Ford administration.”

    - President Gerald Ford, 1976 Presidential Debate

  5. Troy La Mana on 18.09.2007 at 13:57 (Reply)

    Hey guys when are you going to change the GOP Front Runner pic to Fred?

    If people would have paid attention for the last couple of months they would know that the people are behind Fred and that is what realy counts. The only thing holding him back from the #1 spot is that he was not a canidate. Go the the http://fred08.com/ site and actually listen to what he has to say. The clips of him on the road after the announcement speak volumes. He’s not stuttering and without ideas like the media would like to whitewash him as being. The most recent Rasmussen Poll, Fred’s numbers continue to rise, while the rest of the field is trailing farther behind:

    9/13-9/16

    Thompson 28
    Giuliani 19
    McCain 14
    Romney 12
    Huckabee 6

    Fred is storming the nation and none of your canidates will be able to stop him. He is in this race because the people didn’t like the choices. The people have spoken and they want Fred Dalton Thompson as the next President of the United States of America.

  6. Blogs for Mitt » Blog Archive » Tuesday News Roundup on 18.09.2007 at 15:25

    [...] Political Derby’s Jason Wright has his latest Power Rankings up.  Mitt’s down to #3.  Some days you win.  Some days you lose.  Some days it rains.  [...]

  7. BoruJudasDedrich on 18.09.2007 at 17:01 (Reply)

    LOL…poll results vary.

    I’ll spare you my list of poll results showing Ron Paul as the landslide winner.

    What is PD’s polling system anyway?

  8. RedstateEddio on 18.09.2007 at 17:19 (Reply)

    With regards to the Repubs: I’d switch Huck & McCain, and put Ron Paul in close behind (within shouting distance, of course). Although Huck recently tripped over a cigarette, he’s generating serious traction with voters, groups, and polls.

  9. BoruJudasDedrich on 19.09.2007 at 17:43 (Reply)

    Sadly, discussing Republican candidates and the difference in their issues is no longer relevant.

    Remember Perot…splitting the conservative vote…leading to Bill Clinton?

    Ron Paul will do the same. If Paul doesn’t get the Republican primary, he will run as an independent and pull lots of the conservative vote (albeit, he will get some of the anti-war liberal vote too). Regardless, Hillary wins (we all know that Hillary will get the Democratic primary…right?).

    Now if Republicans voted for Perot, instead of Bush Sr., Perot would have beaten Bill Clinton.

    Ditto for today. It’s either Ron Paul or Hillary Clinton for president.

    I know many of you want someone else to be win. Go ahead and grieve, but only for a short while. Then accept that Ron Paul and Hillary Clinton are your only choices for your next president.

    I hate reality games and how people rule the ‘island’ via superior alliances instead of superior leadership, character, etc. But that is the harsh world that we live in. Paul supporters aren’t going to support anyone else…our alliance, small as it *seems*, is unshakable…we’d rather go down with the ship. As many of you said, we are fanatics (if you understood what we believe, you’d understand). Anyway, if you don’t want Hillary Clinton to be your next president, you have to support Ron Paul.

    Again, hate the situation if you want to, hate Ron Paul and his supporters if you want to, but accept it and play the game that is set before you.

    Either Ron Paul or Hillary Clinton will be your next president.

    You decide.

  10. Bruce, Political Columnist on 20.09.2007 at 16:10 (Reply)

    Taking bets on the GOP Ticket for 08
    John McCain / Rudy Giuliani

    JW knows what I think of Arizona’s native son
    but credit is due
    Johnny is the come back kid

    And the only one who can beat
    Billary / Obama

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