When will Romney worry that he still trails McCain in national polls?
Posted on August 10th, 2007 at 10:45 am by Jason Wright, EditorWe’ve talked a lot here at the Derby about the importance, or lack thereof, of national polls at this stage in a presidential campaign. Still, Team Romney can’t be thrilled that they continue to trail Morose McCain on the national scene. Today brings yet another poll with Romney stuck in 4th.
Poll: Giuliani leads for GOP nomination
WASHINGTON (CNN) — Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is leading the pack of Republican presidential hopefuls, supported by 29 percent of respondents in a poll released Friday.
Unannounced candidate former Sen. Fred Thompson is close behind with 22 percent, according to the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll. Sen. John McCain of Arizona is a distant third with 16 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had 12 percent support.
Of the last five significant national polls: Rasmussen, CNN, USA Today/Gallup, Cook/RT Strategies, Newsweek, Romney bests the Arizona senator in only one.
It’s one thing to poll fourth as a national political newcomer, it’s another to poll fourth behind John McCain, a man who has a greater chance of winning America’s Got Talent as he does the GOP nomination.
When is it time to worry that Mitt still trails McCain?
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To me - it wouldn’t matter who’s leading or trailing in the national polls. National polls, for the time being, don’t matter as much. If you look at every national poll from the last 25 years - nearly every single one of them differs from before the early caucus / primary states to after.
Also, if you study what most of the political commentators are saying (CNN, MSNBC, FOXNews, ABC, etc.), they also say that national polls don’t account for much right now; that it’s the polling in the early primary states and straw polls from those states that matter more.
Reason why…most people are not paying that close of attention yet - nationally speaking - to the candidates and their platforms as those people in the early primary states.
Also, since the inception of the Ames Straw Poll, that national poll has also had major changes from before and after on both the Democratic and Republican side. After the Ames Poll tomorrow, look for gradual to moderate changes in some of the national polls.
On the Dem side…it’s going to be a battle between Clinton and Obama. On the GOP side, it’ll come down to either Giuliani or Romney.
I can’t see Fred Thompson going anywhere now that he’s seen as tired and boring…getting in too late…and that the truth of his record is coming out and upsetting the GOP base with some of his newly discovered problems with abortion, McCain-Feingold, the “Amnesty” Bill, and his aid to Haitian dictator Aristide. I believe he’ll peak when he enters, but then he’ll start dropping.
I believe you are wrong.
I can’t get excited about either Giuliani or Romney. Both have liberal positions. One admits them and the other is doing a Kerry.
If Fred Thompson is such a dead end then why does he consistantly poll higher each month?
I also don’t buy into the “too late to enter the race” line. If it is too late then why are so many flocking to Fred? The other canidates just aren’t what the public is looking for and Fred answers that need.
I don’t see Fred as tired or boring. I liked his answer to Moore.
I don’t think his previous work is ever going to cause an issue as most people look at his stands on the issues and like what they hear.
Of course I (a Ron Paul supporter) will disagree with “On the GOP side, it’ll come down to either Giuliani or Romney.”
but I agree with everything else. And this comes from someone who can throw out umpteen polls showing Ron Paul winning by landslides.
Typically polls are fun, but more propaganda than any scientific indication (yes, that means most polls are frauds).
The Ames Straw poll is certainly fraudulent…but historicaly, it is a slightly decent indicator of things to come…mostly because the media corruptly hypes the fraud poll as a valid uncorrupted poll. Due to the hype, about half of the winners of the Ames Straw Poll have gone on to win the Republican presidential nomination. However, the Ames Straw Poll is a much better predictor of the Iowa Caucus winner: in the history of the Ames Straw Poll, except in 1987, the winner of the Ames Straw Poll has gone on to win the Iowa Caucus.
He’s not worried due to one word: MOVEMENT
He’s moving up the national polls. He’s a no-name canidate and movement is what he needs. My parents vote (R) in every election. They are from UTAH. They have never heard of Romney. They obviously did not watch the 2002 olympics. Name recognition is not easy, but it will come.
Romney doesn’t have to worry yet at least. As Jacosta said, Romney is leading where it counts. However, if he doesn’t get at least a slight bump from the media coverage and credibility that will come from winning the Ames straw poll (which he almost surely will)- then he should start worrying. His numbers don’t have to skyrocket, just go up by a few points.
All this being said, I think Jacosta’s prediction about it coming down to Giuliani and Romney is a very good possibility, although I hope it doesn’t. Look at their websites- out of 10 issues listed, Giuliani only speaks of reducing the scope of government three times- Romney only mentions it once. I like some things about each of these guys, but neither really repsents a small-government Republican.
….And how it must sting both Romney & McCain to still being bested by an unannounced candidate.
Fred is trending downward. The latest Rasmussen poll has him down 9 points. This same poll showed him consistently leading in June.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
I think everyone is starting to realize that Fred is no Ronald Reagan.
The real question is, who will benefit from Fred’s decline?
The decline (slight as it is) is from people expecting the announcement in July. He took a small hit for pushing back until September. The numbers will skyrocket once he’s offically in the race. Think of it like this: Now Fred only needs 50 million to win and he nearly have 1/5 of that now.
A couple tid bits: Kerry was polling at 7% nationally the day before the Iowa caucus. Two days after the caucus he was leading the national polls with 29% (Dean was #2 with 17%). After winning New Hampshire, Kerry jumped to a whopping 53%.
Considering that, Romney’s national numbers (8% to 14% depending on the poll) look outstanding. If winning Iowa and New Hampshire are half as effective for Romney as they were for Kerry, the nomination is a lock.
Don’t hurry to worry!
The sheep are asleep…
When Romney straws well
Then the sheep will leap.
I wish that Newt Gingrich would enter the race for the Presidency. Every Republican candidte so far does not excite me.
“I wish that Newt Gingrich would enter the race for the Presidency. Every Republican candidte so far does not excite me.”
Here’s a link to which candidate excites Gingrich.
http://sc4huckabee.blogspot.com/2007/08/mike-huckabee-praised-by-newt-gingrich.html