Mike Bloomberg is “not running for president.” It’s just hard to believe him, seeing as how he is campaigning for president. The mayor gave yet another national policy speech this week, after unveiling his new website, mike2008.com, which of course has nothing to do with running for president.

Peter A. Brown writes in The Politico that “A Bloomberg candidacy would help Dems.” Brown cites Quinnipiac University polls that show a hypothetical Bloomberg candidacy taking more votes away from a Dem nominee than from a GOPer, much like Ross Perot did in ’92.

Conventional wisdom is that Perot’s candidacy wound up helping Bill Clinton get elected. The early returns suggest a Bloomberg candidacy might do the same thing for Bill’s wife.

What this analysis ignores is that Bloomberg won’t be spending his billions in red states, or even in red-leaning purple states – he will be putting them into states that Dems think they have locked up, and that’s why they’re scared of him. How could any Democrat not be scared of a guy who has a 73 percent approval rating in one of the nation’s most liberal states? Bloomberg is positioning himself as a pro-environment, pro-education, anti-gun candidate. In short, Hillary is not begging him to get in.

The polls don’t say much about Bloomberg yet because most of America doesn’t know who he is. That’s where the billions of dollars come into play. If he does start running for real, it’s the Democrats who have the most to lose, because he runs in the Northeast, the West, and the Midwest. He might even be a legit contender, but I just don’t see how he takes any red states away from Republicans.

The Democrats are, after all, the party that is planning to waltz into the White House based on the neverending failures of the Bush Administration, kind of like they took over Congress without needing any pesky details like policy proposals. Right now, things look rosy for whoever the Dems nominate, and they certainly don’t want a billionaire transformational candidate thrown into their path.

In fact, if things don’t turn around for the GOP in the next year, a Bloomberg candidacy might be the only way a Republican possibly can win.