2008 Power Rankings: July 25th, 2007
Posted on July 25th, 2007 at 7:00 am by Jason Wright, EditorWelcome to the latest edition of PoliticalDerby.com’s 2008 Power Rankings, the original tracking service in the current race for the White House. The rankings are updated as circumstances warrant and are compiled by our Editor and contributors using wire reports, polls, campaign staffer scuttlebutt and confidential tips.
Rankings last updated: July 25, 2007
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| Power Ranking | The Horse | Momentum | The Tip Sheet | |
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Hillary Clinton |  |
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Hillary is a force that ostensibly cannot be stopped. She’s the Washington Redskins of the 80’s, the New York Yankees of the 90’s, or any team that NBA ref Tim Donaghy bet on in the 2000’s. A month ago, when Obama came within the spread, Hillary brought out the big guns — Bill — and it paid off. But will the fact that her hubby is still the party’s #1 rock star remind people of all Hillary could never be? Is Bill more ladylike than Hill? Stay tuned. (previous ranking: #1) |
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Barack Obama |  |
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Obama had been riding high on his massive Q2 primary fundraising victory… right until the moment he caved to an uber-liberal special interest group and suggested sex-ed begin in kindergarten. Fortunately he succeeded in changing the subject. Now he’s alone in suggesting 18 months before potentially taking office that he’d meet with the presidents of Iran, North Korea, and Bedrock. The ensuing dogfight with Hillary has real potential to turn into something rarely seen off the Michael Vick compound. (previous ranking: #2) |
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Bill Richardson |  |
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Richardson, the hispanic Governor of NM, is hardly lighting the track on fire, but he’s moved up to 3rd because John Edwards simply can’t get his act together. Being consistent has its benefits, even if few people are paying attention to him. He’s nicely positioned to be a solid choice for VP if either Clinton or Obama win the whole enchilada. (previous ranking: #4) |
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John Edwards |  |
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Edwards’ mega summer poverty tour was more hyped than Evan Almighty, roughly as inspirational, and disappeared from public awareness almost as quickly. No strategy shift seems capable of keeping Edwards from stopping to eat weeds along the side of track. If Edwards were a horse, and horses were planes, he’d be nose-diving. (previous ranking: #3) |
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Joe Biden |  |
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In a field bent on appeasing the moveon.org crowd, Biden’s refreshing honesty about his votes on the war have won him admirers. While seemingly entrenched as the leader of the also-rans, he has firmly planted his flag in the ground of being at the top of the list of dems for Secretary of State. (previous ranking: #6) |
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Chris Dodd |  |
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The good senator from Connecticut has proven to be, well, irrelevant in this race. Not quite ready to drop out, but his trainer is calling the vet. Bring the syringe, Sheryl. (previous ranking: #7) |
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Dennis Kucinich |  |
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Congressman Kucinich has picked up some hard-earned sympathetic press. Unfortunately for him it was due to the fact he, as a Vegan, got food poisoning. But while he might not the best poster child for vegetarianism, his wife sure is. Hubba hubba. (previous ranking: #8) |
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Mike Gravel |  |
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Gravel’s hatred of rocks and desire to drown them in small ponds made for the oddest ad thus far in the campaign. It earned him more media attention in a day than he could afford over the life of his “campaign”, a word used very loosely in connection with the quirky senior citizen. (previous ranking: #9) |
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Al Gore |  |
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If you throw a concert for the earth and no one really cares, did you accomplish anything? Even with an Oscar and the elimination of life as we know it on his side, Live Earth couldn’t draw enough big names to create a trickle of excitement. His 4-out-of-5-dentists-surveyed approach to science appears to be wearing thin with the public. That and the fact that the Johannesburg, South Africa concert’s low attendance was blamed on the cold weather. Brrr. (previous ranking: #3) |
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Michael Moore |  |
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Even with all the hype and free press for Sicko, Moore’s attempt to insert himself into yet another election has fizzled thus far. His recent attacks on Wolf Blitzer, Dr. Sanjay Gupta and CNN rang as hollow as the results of his stint in a $3800 per week fat farm and the multi-millionaire socialist’s attempts to connect with the “common man” have worked about as well as Lindsey Lohan’s 45-day rehab stay. (previous ranking: #10) |
| Others receiving votes: Wes Clark, Cindy Sheehan |
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| Power Ranking | The Horse | Momentum | The Tip Sheet | |
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Rudy Giuliani |  |
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Rudy’s leads in the national polls are down to an average of just 5 points over Fred Thompson. A strong conservative speech on judges in Iowa and an attack from the nation’s largest firefighters union makes the last few weeks a momentum wash. Only time will tell which will have more sway with the public: Principled talk on how the judiciary should function, or the web-based propaganda of a union that is so liberal that they once endorsed Michael Dukakis. (previous ranking: #1) |
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Fred Thompson |  |
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Freddy T, the hardest working man in the “I’m only sort of running for President” business continues to rise by flirting with the public and creating the type of buzz that tends to go away once you officially announce that you want to be President. The longer he waits to make it official, the longer he’ll escape the spotlight of media scrutiny the other candidates are sweating under. Will his wife’s recent heavy hand in the campaign trip him up? Paging First Lady Sherry Palmer. (previous ranking: #4) |
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Mitt Romney |  |
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Romney is warm, but he has yet to catch fire. Strong showings in polls in the first two primary states are encouraging signs, but those only carry him so far. Particularly when you’re spending money faster than Congress. For someone accused of being “too polished,” his campaign could use an industrial-sized bottle of Tarex. (previous ranking: tied for #2) |
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John McCain |  |
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What’s the single greatest difference between the late, great race horse, Barbaro, and the campaign of John McCain? Barbaro knows he’s dead. (previous ranking: tied for #2) |
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Mike Huckabee |  |
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Huckabee continues to win fans, but not supporters. He has positioned himself better than anyone else to be the Veep choice for any one of the announced non-southerners now leading the pact. It’s time for Huck to concede, at least in the mirror, that he can’t win the nomination spending less than Romney spends on makeup consultants. (previous ranking: #5) |
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Ron Paul |  |
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Having more cash on hand than McCain could be due to the Libertarian’s unwillingness to spend money on anything, or it could be that there is still a slice of the populous that actually believes in the Constitution. Don’t expect his support to grow, but do expect it to remain solid. The Paullowers are a very dedicated bunch. (previous ranking: #10) |
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Sam Brownback |  |
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Brownback’s remarkably sudden return to the conservative fold for his immigration vote pleased the base. But his waffling, lack of money, and any serious, new legislative proposals continue to keep him right where he is likely to finish: near the bottom. (previous ranking: #7) |
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Newt Gingrich |  |
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Many conservatives long for the days when Newt led the Republicans to majorities in the House and Senate, but they also fear Newt is more interested in selling books than anything else. And establishing close ties with liberals in his quest to find solutions to America’s problems have caused many conservatives to question the credentials of their once great leader. (previous ranking: #5) |
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Duncan Hunter |  |
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Duncan Hines has more name recognition and a better shot of pulling off the nomination than Duncan Hunter. And, let’s face it, the cake would taste a lot better at the election night party. (previous ranking: #8) |
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Tom Tancredo |  |
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Being a one trick pony on an issue that has played out doesn’t bode well for Tancredo. While immigration is still an issue many voters care about, the fact that there is no longer a bill for people to hate currently before Congress means the media, therefore the public, simply won’t be paying attention to the issue. Unfortunately for Tancredo, the same facts apply to his candidacy. (previous ranking: #9) |
| Others receiving votes: Patricia Heaton, Tommy “Is he still running?” Thompson |
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Posted in Power Rankings-2008, White House-2008 by
Jason Wright, Editor •
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You missed another difference between Barbaro and McCain. People actually miss Barbaro
RUDY, RUDY, RUDY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you very much…my day will be better knowing there’s new power rankings. (No really, I’m serious) Down with RUDY PATUDY!!!
I wonder how many people actually know Michael Moore went to a fat camp. Google it. It’s a funny story.
Tommy Thompson is actually ahead of Hunter, Tancredo, and Brownback. He’s polled at 7% in Iowa in more than one poll and is making a large effort there. I considerably doubt that he’ll ever get past 7%, but Duncan Hunter would kill for that kind of polling right now. They’ve also raised roughly the same amount of money, so there’s really no reason to place Hunter above Tommy. Brownback and Tancredo raised more, so you haven argument there. But not with Tommy.
Not picking a fight, but could we see links to the Iowa polls showing TT doing that well? That sorta surprises me.
Go Fred Go!
See you at #1 next month Fred.
Ron Paul might just be VP too.
AndDru1, is that sarcasm I detect??? Don’t you know this web site doesn’t allow sarcasm???
Fred’s campaign is not raising the money they thought they could.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/07/25/289502.aspx
Sources close to the presumptive campaign tell NBC News that Fred Thompson’s fundraising is down “markedly.” One claimed it has “slowed down big-time.” The pace is described as a consequence of the delayed announcement to enter the race.
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_062707.htm
http://www.swnebr.net/newspaper/cgi-bin/articles/articlearchiver.pl?161202
Not every poll has him doing as well, but Tommy Thompson nevertheless has a presence in Iowa. Romney is still the favorite, but as far as the Ames straw poll in August, nothing is set in stone and there could be a few surprises. Personally, I think Sam Brownback may surprise a lot of people. The Des Moines Register has an interesting article about it:
http://www.swnebr.net/newspaper/cgi-bin/articles/articlearchiver.pl?161202
http://www.brownback.com/s/NewsRoom/PressReleases/tabid/89/Default.aspx
Above is a link to Sam Brownback’s site (the press release page). You would think he is running for governor of Iowa, but at least it shows that his campaign isn’t dead in the water. He placed second in a straw poll in Iowa’s second largest county (30%) and first in it’s fourth largest county (40%). I wouldn’t be suprised to see Brownback throw almost everything he has at the Ames straw poll and nip Romney’s heels. Of course my guess is as good as anyone’s as to whether that will give him a boost.
By the way, I think the power rankings are pretty good overall- although Sheehan would top out Moore anyday
I wouldn’t believe everything PMSNBC has to say.
They wouldn’t report the same thing the same way if Fred was a liberal canidate.
Even if the goal is off by 2 million that isn’t, in my opinion, anything to be concerned about. Once the announcement is made, and everyone is dead sure it will be made, then the money will start flowing in.
Besides, it’s not like Fred needs the money right now. Like he said, start the campaign this late means he saved 50 million of the projected 100 million polls said would be needed to win the election.
Just 47 million left to go…
Speaking of Fred Thompson, There are only 6 days now left in July–his promised announcement month–for him to announce Yay or Nay.
As such, I have a post in the political forums section under Fred Thompson. It is called “The Fred Thompson Presidential Announcement Contest.”
Yes, it is a little contest. Do check it out and participate. Only 6 days left in July!
Will Michael Moore’s next expose be on fat camps and how they never work?
Why WOULD you want to announce when you are still climbing in the polls. At this rate Fred can wait until he is 1st in the polls before giving a final yes. You all know he is running and when it’s official it won’t really matter. The people are behind this canidate and the left is running scared at that thought.
BTW: What is the official cut off date for announcing?
Also, for the record, I LOVE the picture of Moore. It’s like he is admitting to the world he is a loser!
Rudy is the GOP’s most electable candidate
Washington Post/ABC News Poll: Rudy the Clear Favorite
A Washington Post/ABC News national poll released this evening has Rudy Giuliani with an impressive 21 point lead over his closest rival.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/07/24/new_poll_gop_likes_rudys_elect.html?hpid=topnews
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll of the Republican field shows Giuliani with a sizeable lead over his three principal rivals. The former mayor was the choice of 37 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, well ahead of Arizona Sen. John McCain and the still-undeclared Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee, virtually tied at 16 and 15 percent, respectively. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney ran fourth with 8 percent.
Giuliani’s frontrunner status is fueled by a broad-based perception that he is the party’s most electable candidate. Nearly half of Republicans believe Giuliani is their party’s best chance of winning in November 2008; that is three or four times higher than the percentage mentioning other candidates. Democrats and independents also said Giuliani would represent the Republicans’ best shot at holding onto the White House.
Troy - interesting question about the cut-off date for announcing. Here’s how you get on the primary ballot in MY state -
Now. Can FDT count on my party chair to annoint him? I live in a Democrat state, so our Sec. of State may not place him on the ballot.
If you wait until November - can you count on having enough foot soldiers to gather signatures before the deadline, or will they already be committed to somebody else?
Every state has its own criteria - but the day of the convention draft is over, and Fred and Newt dally at their peril if they ARE serious. (which I don’t think they are)
Didja notice that Ron Paul blasted up the list.
By percentage, Ron Paul increased his campaign finances between Q1 and Q2 more than any other candidate…and barely spent a dime in Q1…lol.
Ron Paul won all (or nearly all) three GOP debate polls. The ones where voters were polled…not fake @ss media polls.
Ron Paul has received the most donations from military personnel of all candidates (what does that tell you).
Ron Paul supporters have moved well beyond owning the internet, into more meetup groups than any other candidates, and onto the streets in record numbers.
I know the media has scheduled next week for the big Fred splash, but the media can’t ignore the RON PAUL TSUNAMI! If the media tries, it will be WIPED OUT!
The only reason for Fred Thompson to annouce by the end of July is because he said that is when he would make his yes or no annoucement. And he said so publicly. He announced his annoucement if you will. As such a July announcement is important.
Dominick - Thompson had a fundraiser in Chatham here on Cape Cod. A lady who went told me that he said Labor Day….
Fred Thompson belly flopped into the race with small finance numbers. Why the heck did the media hype him up so damn much? Even politicalderby ranked him 3rd (see tables above) before his numbers came out…WTF?!
And they have Ron Paul at 6th? Behind who Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee…pffft! Face it Ron Paul’s little campaign easily put him in 4th place.
Want proof? Rudy and Romney ducked the CNN/YouTube debate. Why? Cuz the people want Ron Paul…alot more than the media is letting onto…and it really shows on YouTube.
Why didn’t the politicalderby and most media call Rudy and Romney cowards for doing so?
Aren’t you tired of the biased coverage yet?