AP Poll: None of the above in front of the pack for GOP

By David Kaiser, Editor

Filed Under Race for White House 2008 on Jul 17 

A recent AP-Ipsos poll shows the apparent continued dissatisfaction among GOPers with the field of candidates for the 2008 Republican nomination, due to the fact that a horse with no rider actually leads the race.

“None of the above” has the highest rating in the poll at 23%. A slumping Rudy Giuliani clings to second at 21%, followed by the horse-yet-to-be-in-the-race, Fred Thompson at 19%, then John McCain, the horse who has lost his trainer, groomer and head bottle-washer, at 15% and Mitt Romney, the horse who is poised for the fastest start, but it remains a question how he will perform beyond Iowa and New Hampshire, at 11%.

An even more interesting portion of the poll lists support among Christian evangelicals:

Giuliani, a thrice-married backer of abortion rights and gay rights, had 20 percent support — roughly even with Thompson and McCain who have one divorce each in their pasts. Romney, a Mormon who has been married for three decades, was in the single digits.

Comments

  • Dominick08

    If he sticks in the race until the New Hampshire (NH) primary–which I think he will–Paul could be a spoiler in the GOP primary there.

    In the NH primary registered Independents can choose to vote in either the GOP or Democratic primaries.

    Paul might be very tempting to many MH Independents. In addition, he might prove equally attractive to a number of Republicans. Many NH Republicans and independents lean very Libertarian.

    I don’t expect Paul to win the NH primary by any means but he could take enough votes from one or the other of the GOP top-tier candidates to play a spoiler role.

  • NewYorkStateConservative

    Jacosta- since when is media time “precious”??? Is that why they donate so much time Anna Nicole Smith and Paris Hilton?

    When a candidate who is suppose to be a moron with 0 percent chance of winning raises 2.4 million dollars, and has more cash on hand than any Republican besides Rudy and Romney, you can’t completely write him off.

    Bruce the Columnist is right- Paul has many stances that appeal to both liberals and conservatives (and of course many stances that put off both liberals and conservatives). It all depends on what tenet of conservatism or liberalism you hold most dear. If you’re a conservative who believes in a muscular military above all else, then Paul would of course be repugnant to you. But if your a conservative because you believe in small government and a strict interpretation of the constitution (like myself)then naturally you’ll be drawn to Paul even if you disagree with a number of his other stances.

    I contend that if you’re a true conservative you can’t help but like Paul at least a little bit, even if you cringe when he talks about Iraq or Vietnam.

  • Dominick08

    The great Ron Paul internet conspiracy. Could be true?

    I hear he was present the day JFK was shot in Dallas. That Ron Paul was at Roswell at the time of the infamous reported UFO sighting. Further, that he once had lunch with Oliver Stone in Southern California.

    Does he really believe the internet is a better source for information than radio, TV or newspapers? I wonder? Or is it really that, as I heard, he was one of the first investors in WebMD, and that Dr. Paul is just promoting the internet so he can cash in and earn “Google Money.”?

  • Jacosta

    The reason why the MSM is ignoring Ron Paul is the same reason most voters, political pundits, GOP Insiders and commentators are – he can’t and won’t win! Why spend precious media time on someone like R.P. who isn’t registering above a blip on a radar screen?

    Here’s a fact for ya’ – in the first GOP presidential debate, R.P. announces that he doesn’t trust television, newspaper, or radio for factual news – but, he believes the Internet is the best source for information.

    Is it just coincidence – a lot of polls on the Internet have been swarmed with R.P. supporters – and they’ve been caught on numerous Web polls spamming votes to make him look good! Three Websites have banned R.P. supporters because of the spamming problems! Well, no wonder R.P. loves the Internet – because his cronies are manipulating the Internet….but they can’t spam TV, radio, and newspaper polls.

  • Rollman76

    It can’t happen because Newt won’t run.

  • Dominick08

    A bias poll or not, the poll tracks fairly well with other polls in terms of a significant “none of the above” factor. This factor actually plays well for the wild card (or wild Newt) Gingrich.

    All along Gingrich has said he will evaluate the field and his options in September and make a decision to either get in the race or not.

    Smart for Newt as he saw this “none of the above” factor long before most. And, the fact that even with Fred Thompson in the race–at least as a hypothetical candidate at this point-that most polls show this “none of the above” factor, the field remains wide open for Gingrich still in late July. Will it hold until September? I think it just might.

    Potential September scenario: The polls are roughly where they are now except McCain is toast. He moved to fourth place behind Mike Huckabee. Huckabee is a distant third. Romney has moved to number two behind Rudy. Number one Rudy is ahead of number two Romney by 10-12 points. Fred Thompson didn’t run–he waited until the last week of July and backed out. No fire in the belly. Too much controversy. Health issues flared up again. Got a three-picture deal with Fox.

    However, the GOP (especially the conservative base) remains unhappy. The “none of the above” factor remains high in the polls.

    Gingrich announces in early September. The GOP base is elated and gives Newt their full support. He immediatly moves into number two, 5-7 points or so behind Rudy. Romney drops to third. Huckabee a distant fourth. McCain at fifth completely out of the picture.

    Where does Newt get his points? The majority of the GOP base is currently with Rudy–and holding their nose. The rest are with Thompson–but Fred doesn’t run. The remaining are with Romney; and he has been gaining.

    Gingrich jumps in. Rudy loses most of the base to Newt. The Thompson supporters–who split between Rudy, Romney and Huckabee–go in the main to Newt. Additionally, many of the base who went with Romney becuase they just couldn’t stomach Rudy, go to Gingrich. Huckabee leaves the race and supports Newt.

    Beginning in mid September, with about four months remaining until the early primaries, Newt starts hammering Rudy as a Liberal. Pro-choice, pro Gay Civil Unions, ect. Also positions Rudy as a candidate with few if any ideas on the economy. Also Rudy’s lack of foreign policy and defense experience, ect.

    It will be difficult for Rudy to attack Newt on his multiple marriages and affairs. Something they both share after all. And hard for Rudy to play the curruption card on Newt–although there is plenty there. However, Rudy has just as much so it is a match even on those issues.

    Can it happen?

  • http://www.azconservative.org/McCain_Tribute.htm Bruce, Political Columnist

    When you go underground on the www, you’ll see who’s in everyone’s rear-view mirror… Ron Paul.

    Of course he doesn’t show up in the drive-by media because they’re ignoring him and the establishment is hoping he’ll go away. But look at his fundraising numbers.

    Paul captures a true crossover segment of voters which is out of the box for mainstream pollsters to quantify.

  • JeffH

    Even though she spun it, she has a decent point. Clinton got 36% of those polled, which is three times higher than the “none of the above” number you came up with, 13%. Obama also was well above the 13% threshold as well. Also, how does 13% “beat out” (your words) 11%, but is in a “dead heat” with 15%. Both those are 2 apart from 13. She may have spun in the past, Im not familiar with this writer, but her point is valid here. Its definitely intriguing that more people are undecided at this juncture than have latched onto any one candidate.

  • Gary Russell

    Jacosta,
    Great minds think alike!

  • Jacosta

    Gary – you beat me to it! You’re right on!

    Several months ago, I got curious about Liz Sidoti after she had written some scathing, unfair, and distorted lines about Romney, Fred Thompson, and Giuliani…but in the same article, was very or even overly pleasant towards the Clintons, Edwards and Obamas.

    I then researched Sidoti and discovered, as you have – she is fanatically in love with the Democrats and despises Republicans…and will resort to twisting information to suit herself and her beloved Liberal friends!

  • Gary Russell

    You might want to reach for the box of Morton’s for this one – it should be taken with more than one grain of salt.
    The spin on the poll results is provided by LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer. A Google search of Liz’s journalistic work over the past few weeks shows a common theme: “Republican campaigns are all falling apart / Democrats looking good!”
    The “23% for none of the above” that she quotes is actually her own combining of two separate stats: 8% for “none”, and 15% for “unsure”. I don’t know about you, but I see nothing wrong with 15% of Republican voters being unsure at this point in the race. As for the 8% who chose “none”, that is similar to the 4% of Democrats who voiced the same opinion of their slate of candidates in the same poll. For that matter, using Ms. Sidoti’s same spinning skills, one could use the same poll to headline the fact that 13% of dems choose “none of the above” (4% chose “none”, 9% chose “undecided”). That 13% beats out the Breck girl (11%), and is in a dead heat with ALGORE (15%).
    My point: Spin is spin.