Political Derby’s latest FoxNews fix (07/12/2007)
Posted on July 12th, 2007 by PD AdministratorJason appeared on Fox & Friends this morning and revealed PD’s first ever VP Pony Rankings. Unfortunately because of breaking news, the segment was condensed at the last minute. What Jason didn’t quite have time to say is that SC governor Mark Sanford has conservative credentials that the top-tier candidates would die for. If given a shot as #2, and it’s not clear he’d like the job, Sanford would become an Obama-like rock star among the GOP grassroots. They’d eat him up.
As for the democrats, former VA governor Mark Warner is an obvious #2 for much of the same reasons as Evan Bayh. (No, it’s not Jason’s fault Fox misspelled his name on air.) Warner would immediately bring Virginia into play, and everyone knows it’s been trending blue anyway. Enjoy the clip. It’s probably the only time the “DC Madam” makes the VP short list.
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LOL, I hope Vitter sees this!
Agree 100% on Bayh. I think that’s why he dropped out so early. And there’s no way Hillary or Obama picks the other.
Oh, and the DC Madam?!?! Better hope she doesn’t have YOUR number on that big list
Hardy har har, Hardy75. I can absolutely, positively guarantee that my number is not on her list. How about you, eh? Deflecting to save face?
The other point I didn’t get to make is that I seriously doubt either Hillary or Obama would pick the other as their running mate. That’s probably tempting history too much. It doesn’t say much about our country, but I think a woman and a minority might be too big a risk. Look for a pasty white guy in the #2 spot for the Dems. Enter Bayh or Warner.
Please take Mark Sanford. He would be a perfect replace ment for Cheney. His only agenda is deepening his pockets and those of his half bright silver spoon buddies.
I absolutely agree that neither Obama or Hillary will pick each other for VP respectively. In fact, I made that point some time ago in one of the forums.
I think Bayh is a potential choice for Hillary but not for Obama. Bayh and Hillary know each other well in addition to the other atributes he brings to the ticket. Remember Bayh put his toes in the water, considering a run for the Democratic nomination. He announced he wouldn’t run about the time Hillary made her formal annoucement.
However, I give Bayh only about a 50 percent chance as VP. Rather, I can see Hillary going outside of currently serving Senators, Governors or others and picking perhaps a retired General. Wes Clark maybe or one of the other 2 or 3 politically savvy retired Generals who have spoken out against the Bush Iraq was policies. This choice would give Hillary a atrong male figure on the ticket, beef up her security and military credentials, and give her a solid conduit to the Pentagon if elected. Bill Richardson is also a possibillity. He brings a strong resume, is very likeable on the campaign trail and would not hurt with Hispanic voters.
Obama is a bit more difficult. He might go unconventional, crossing party lines and picking his good friend and foreign policy mentor Republican Senator Richard Lugar from Indiana. Lugar is a foreign policy “grey hair” and would lend Obama much needed gravitas in terms of foreign policy and military affiars. This choice would also fit well with Obama’s campaign theme of creating a bi-partisan America as President.
Lugar is also a farmer/Senator and does well with populists and independents. He is a moderate in the Republican party. A Lugar choice would make some Democrats mad–especially the left–but what would they do: Stay home? No way they are too hungry for a Dem President. Would they vote Republican in protest? Absolutely no way. They would get over the Lugar choice fast; especially if they thought it would lead to an Obama win. Lugar might also win Indiana for Obama. Indiana is a red state shading to purple.
I can also see Obama going for a similar “grey hair” in the Democratic party. Joe Biden or Chris Dodd perhaps; although neither gets him a red state per se. I give each of them about a 30 percent chance. Richardson is another possiblillity.
The retired General scenario also fits Obama fairly well. Perhaps retired General Zinni if he would do it. Zinni has much respect for his position on the Iraq war.
In terms of the GOP VP pony race, Mike Huckabee is a strong potential for Both Rudy and Mitt Romney. He especially brings needed conservative credentials to Rudy. He also brings the same to Romney, although I don’t think Romney needs them as much as Rudy does in the long run. Arkansas is also an “in play” state and Huckabee would likely help sway that for the GOP in addition to his other attributes as VP: Great personality, excellent contacts, great energy level, ect.
I also agree Gov. Mark Sanford is a high probability. Most likely for Rudi but also Romney and even Fred Thomson. Fred Thompson is more likely to go with a younger VP though I think. One that can bring vigor and youth to the otherwise older looking and behaving Thompson. Sort of a Poppy Bush/Dan Q. scenario.
Mitt Romney would also make a good choice for the nominee if he doesn’t get the nomination himself. He is handsome, smooth, brings money to the race, and has some appeal in the blue states with independents and a few moderate to conservative Dems. This is evidenced by his being elected Gov of Mass, a rather blue state. Romney also has growing appeal in the west, including California. He is liked and know by many of the Silicon Valley folks in California and by Wall Street types on the east coast.
How is Indiana red shading to purple? Every time I return to my home state, it seems to be darker red than the last time I was there. Please explain why you think so.
Dominick08,
I can see the bumper stickers now:
OBAMA / ZINNI
Wouldn’t that be unique?
JeffH
Indiana is red shading to purple primarily because of the Iraq war policy of President Bush. As such–like in many other states–Indiana voters are growing unhappy with the Republican party. They are doing what voters often do: Taking out their displeasure on the party of the administration in the White House.
Two recent polls have shown a 10-12 percent drop in support for a hypothetical Republican party nominee in 2008 by Republicans in Indiana. The same polls showed that Indiana independents are 60% Democrat, 40% Republican in their choice of either a Democrat or Republican for President in 2008. Indiana independents were about 70% Republican and 30% Democrat in the 2004 Presidential election.
Lastly, popular Indiana Republican Senator Richard Lugar recently stated that in his 40 years in Republican Indiana politics he hasn’t seen a time in which Indiana Republicans are so displeased with the party. He also said in his 40 years he has never recieved so much mail, email and phone calls–in adition to personal conversations when he is home–from Indiana Republicans wanting a change in the Iraq war policy and expressing their displeasure with the Administration and Republican Senators.
Therefore, based on this empirical data and information from Senator Lugar, I feel safe to suggest that under current conditions we are seeing Indiana trending from a red state towards purple. Note, I did not say the Democrats would win Indiana. What I said is that with current trends (as explained above) and Richard Lugar as Obama’s VP the ticket would have a strong chance of winning Indiana in 2008.
I’m not sure who you talk to when home in Indiana but perhaps they aren’t the same folks who Senator Lugar is talking to…or who are contacting his office.
Gary R
Obama/Zinni would be unique. And perhaps not that out of this world?
By the way I hear Colin Powell recently met with Obama to dicuss foreign policy and other issues–Powell’s third time now. I also hear that Democratic “power broker” and Bill Clinton best friend Vernon Jordan also recently met with Obama. It seems Jordan is having a tough time deciding on who to raise the big money for–Hillary or Obama. At present it is said he is raising money for both. But he hasn’t endorsed either yet.
Well put Dominick, thanks for the explanation, I definitely dont keep up on Indiana politics like I used to. Thanks again.