Why McCain’s Not Done Yet
Posted on July 7th, 2007 at 5:50 pm by Contributor ArchiveAfter his slide in the polls, PD horserace, and the money contest, plenty of people have started to write off John McCain’s presidential chances, even wondering if he’ll drop out. Here’s why he’s not done yet:
The pro-life vote. The abortion question is the biggest problem for the three frontrunners. After some flip-flopping, Rudy has admitted he is pro-choice. While Romney is still posing as a devout pro-lifer, his recent conversion reeks of opportunism. And the great conservative hope, Fred Thompson, “doesn’t recall” his lobbying on behalf of a pro-choice organization. It’s shocking to me that so much of the media thinks any of these three can get out of a GOP primary with those records on abortion. While McCain has never been the darling of the right, he now has a real chance to win the backing of pro-life groups, if only by default. Many of these groups have serious influence, power, and of course, money. If pro-life groups get scared of the possibility of a Giuliani presidency and get behind McCain, it would give new life to his candidacy.
Primary voters like to play it safe. McCain is the candidate who is the best-known, most battle-tested, and most likely to win Dems and indie voters. While campaigns always bring out new faces, when the actual election comes around, voters usually move back to the safe, “electable” choice. In 2000, he was the upstart maverick. Now he’s the establishment guy falling behind the new horses. In the long run, that might not be such a bad thing.
It’s July. Unexpected events happen in every election, and this primary field looks even more volatile than most. McCain’s having his meltdown now, which leaves six months before Iowa for the others to screw up. Yeah, he’s clearly fallen to fourth place. But he’s also running behind a philandering actor, a cross-dressing New York City mayor, and a Mormon from Massachusetts. The chances of one, or all three, of these guys imploding are ridiclously high. McCain would have to be crazy to drop out now.
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Brendan -
Are you then accusing Mitt Romeny as actually being pro-choice? If so - you must be ignoring his “factual” record as governor…EVERY bill that came across his desk came down on the side of life, not choice! And others bills or laws that would have made it easier to get an abortion in Massachusettes, he vetoed, and he also endorsed abstinence education in all high schools - which is definitely not a pro-choice view.
So, where is the evidence that Romney is pro-choice? I’d like to see you back-up your accusation that he’s “posing” as pro-life.
Jacosta is either paid by Mitt Romney, related to Mitt Romney or IS Mitt Romney. To say he has not flip-flopped is ignorant.
Here is a direct quote from the Lowell Sun, a Mass newspaper in 2002:
“On a personal basis, I don’t favor abortion,” he said. “However, as governor of the commonwealth, I will protect a woman’s right to choose under the laws of the country and the commonwealth. That’s the same position I’ve had for many years.”
Fine, personally, he is against it, but he either flipped to become governor of Massachusetts or he is flipping now to run for president.
Wag the dog all you want Jacosta, you just sound like a shill.
Jacosta: I think Romney has actually been pretty honest that he used to be a pro-choice politician, and now considers himself pro-life. When he ran for Gov. of Mass. he said he agreed with the Roe v. Wade decision and he touted the endorsement of pro-choice groups. He now says he changed his mind on the issue in 2004. Personally, I think it’s pretty transparent that these changes are related to what office he was/is running for.
This article outlines his evolving position:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/content/public/articles/000/000/013/222htyos.asp
First, John McCain is not a man to count out in general–be it as a soldier, U.S. Senator, survivor or candidate.
However, his biggest weakness is his lack of campaign cash on hand (about 2 million at present), combined with the dramatic drop in his fund raising ability. This is just not enough money to run even a low-key campaign let alone a “run to win campaign.” He has to do something fast–get a big loan, recharge his donor-base, ect. to move forward on just a staffing level, not to mention even talking about media buys.
In terms of the GOP pro-life vote this is a good point. To date I continue to be baffled by the fact that despite Giuliani’s pro-choice position (not to mention his documented donations to Planned Parenthood, support of Gay civil unions and cross-dressing) he continues to get strong support from the GOP conservative base. He couldn’t and wouldn’t be where he is in the polls without support from the base.
Regarding Romney I think he is in a better position vis-a-vis Giuliani in terms of his pro-life stand. He has handled it fairly well, saying at one time he was pro-choice, but changed his mind based on his religious faith and observations he made regarding abortion. This was basically Ronald Reagan’s position (he was pro-choice once too) and he did pretty well. Romney is nearly as good a salesman as Reagan was as well.
I do believe, however, it is going to take far more than Giuliani’s pro-choice position, the GOP conservative base’s possible ambivalence
over Romney’s pro-life postion and Fred Thompson’s having once (or even twice)lobbied for a pro-choice organization, to give McCain the needed momentum to win the GOP nomination.
The GOP conservative base, even though they agree with McCain on pro-life, otherwise seem to just plain dislike him. Immigration, education, other social issues are all things they disagree with McCain on–but even more important they don’t see him as with “them.”
It is still early, that I agree with. Although when I was saying it was early three months ago, it really was early. Now, three months later, it isn’t as early. In other words, McCain has to show major improvement in the next three months (by October), or I think he will be GOP Presidential candidate nomination toast.
Of course big things can happen–candidate implosions and the like–but Presidential primary history generally tells us that by October(3 months before the first two primaries) the candidate slate is basically set. If you are number three or four in October you aren’t likely to jump to number one or two in the remaining three months before New Hampshire and Iowa.
McCain has a very uphill battle to remain number three in the GOP race let alone win the nomination. But I don’t count him out either.
However, it isn’t going to be an issue like life/choice–not in 2008 at least–that determines his success. Nor will it be a candidate implosion–despite the major liabilities of Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Romney. One might implode, but not all three.
With Romney–and likely Fred Thompson–in the race the GOP base is going to have two candidates they are relatively comfortable with to choose from. (And their is no indication yet that the large portion of the base currently supporting Giuliani is running away from him.) This will make it even more difficult for McCain since the base has demonstrated they have a very low likeability for the Senator from Arizona.
“EVERY bill that came across his [Mass. Governor Mitt Romney] desk came down on the side of life, not choice!”
Jacosta, would you please share with me the Mass. state bills regarding the issue of pro-life vs pro-choice that came to Mitt Romney’s desk from the Mass. state legislature while he was Governor of Mass. I am seriously not aware of any pro-life/pro-choice bills of substance that would have come out of the Democratic-majority Mass. state legislature. And from a legal standpoint (since Roe v Wade is settled law and would require a Supreme Court decision should any state overturn it) I would be very suprised if a state legislative body(s) such as the two in Mass.–controlled strongly by a Democrat majority during Romney’s tenure as Governor–would ever vote any such bills out of their body and send it to the Governor for his signing or possible veto. Thanks.
Bottom line: Conservatives distrust McCain with a passion.
When I was at a Colorado gun show in 2002 there were signs criticizing “Traitor John McCain” for supporting Amendment 22, which restricted gun purchases as gun shows.
Social conservatives don’t appreciate the fact that McCain was the first Republican US Senator to announce in the spring of 2005 that he would vote with Ted Kennedy and Dick Durbin and Chuck Schumer to preserve the Judicial filibuster, essentially preserving a “minority veto” over Bush’s judicial nominees by the Democrats (who at the time only had 45 US Senators). The Constitutional-Nuclear-Byrd option was/is a huge issue for Republican primary voters concerned about an activist judiciary.
The fact that McCain, as a co-author of McCain-Feingold, has a reason to want liberal judges who would uphold campaign finance restrictions instead of conservative judges who would view McCain-Feingold as at variance with the 1st Amendment. Notice how McCain disagreed with Roberts, Alito, Scalia, Thomas and Kennedy in the recent Wisconsin Right To Life versus Federal Election Commission Supreme Court case?
Taxes. Republican primary voters want a nominee who is a proven tax cutter. McCain is one of less than half-a-dozen Republican US Senators to vote against the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. Even eventual party-switcher Jim Jeffords voted for the Bush tax cuts and/or against killer amendments than did McCain.
Immigration. No need to elaborate except that this issue is huge among Republican primary voters. Being perceived as pro-amnesty is very close to a deal-killer for many, if not most, Republican primary voters.
Sure, McCain’s campaign isn’t over yet. But that’s only because of the Yogi Berra rule. If not for that, you’d be smart to bet against McCain. He’d have a better chance at winning the Democrat presidential nomination.
I am probably the only higher profile College Republican from Arkansas who’s currently not either being vague about support(due to a certain former governor in my state running as well)or is supporting Fred Thompson as if he was the second coming(first being Reagan of course).
As a person of a certain occupation in a certain region in the Middle East(God forbid I walk and drink a soda at the same time, much less endorse somebody), it would be nice to have someone who can speak from experience with military matters and not shift to either side of thought completely. This goes for more College Republicans being involved in the military, as well as Republican candidates.
As much as it pains me, we Republicans may have the top 3 candidates as pro-choice(Rudy), or simply politically-charged and amoral (Mitt and Fred “the highest bidder” Thompson). It didn’t help with me that Mitt gave a completely disrespectful answer to Chris Matthews about McCain’s use of experience of being beaten and tortured for 5 years as reason for his stance against torture(or whatever the politically correct name he uses for torture).
Two more things: Sen. Thompson’s record is marginally different from McCain’s, he has no military record whatsoever, and despite being an “actor”, he has a certain inability to recite the simplest stump speech.
Oh, and that abortion lobbying thing, too. I almost forgot. Fred apparently did.
Most of the people I now are not even considering the McCRudney Trio. They have selected Fred, Hunter, or (shudders) Paul.
Two reasons I believe McCain will NEVER win a GOP Primary: (unless he recants them as gross errors of judgment)
1…McCain-Feingold. This piece of legislation is an utter disaster, and led directly to the creation of the 527s, most notably moveon.org.
2…McCain-Kennedy. I don’t believe you, or he really realizes that co-sponsorship effectively killed ANY chance this man has of becoming the nominee.
I am a conservative, and I would not vote for this man under any circumstance because it would be easier to fight a Democrat President through opposition (of the Democrat) in the House and Senate, than this man in the White House.
He would finish destroying the GOP…the conservatives would increase their exodus to the Constitution Party.
Dominic08 - Two bills stand out. The first was emergency contraception legislation, which he vetoed. He even wrote Op-ed pieces for the Globe and the Herald at the time, explaining tht he regarded the EC bill as a change in Mass. reproductive law, and he had promised not to do that. He was overrridden by the legislature, but HIS stance was pro-life.
The second was the stem cell legislation - the briefings for that legislation by the Nobel prize winning Harvard doctor who routinely cloned human embryos for study were what TRIGGERED his epiphany, saying, being personally pro-life but legally hands-off is no longer enough. We’ve gone too far. He vetoed THAT bill, too.
And before you ask - no, I’m not paid by Romney, I’m not related to Romney and I’m not Mitt Romney. I AM a GOP who worked in the State House from the late 90’s to 2005, who was there when these bills were acted on. I can assure you the Governor caught hell in pro-choice Mass. for these decisions, but he stuck to them nonetheless.
Rollman76 -
I am NOT paid, related to, nor am I Mitt Romney! In fact, several months ago, I wasn’t even considering Mitt Romney as a viable candidate and was looking toward McCain, F. Thompson, or Huckabee; I believed all the hysteria and hype from the Liberals, media, and people like you that Romney had supposedly flip-flopped on some issues that are inportant to me. However, I did a lot of research on Romney and found that he was honest and forthright in his change.
It’s only the weak and simple minded, that people like you prey after, who believe such hype.
Tell me this - if Romney is such a flip-flopper, why are a majority of the most Conservative Republicans backing Romney - who are ALL pro-life? Attorney James Bopp - known for his very hardcore stances on abortion (he being pro-life and serving as the legal cousel for Focus On The Family and James Dobson, who are also pro-life), is also backing Romney. Tell me - are they ALL wrong? Or, perhaps, have they educated themselves by doing research, interviewed Romney face-to-face, and come to know something that you aren’t willing to find out?
Several of the most prominent pro-life organizations in the United States have also come out in full support of Romney…guess you think that they’re all wrong about Romney as well?
By the way - a flip-flopper is someone who has an issue in front of them, and can never seem to make up thier minds…always changing thier view.
Romney flipped his view on this subject, but he hasn’t flopped! And at least I give him credit for taking the issue head-on and explaining why he changed - Fred Thompson keeps avoiding the issue as to why he’s flip-flopped on abortion!
McCain was in that Gang of 14. Pro-lifers are all about judges.
Pro-life vote doesn’t fly as an argument.
First of all Jacosta, you obviously can’t take a joke, because if you thought I was serious about the “paid”, “friend” or “being” part of the comment, you really need to loosen up.
Secondly, it is in poor taste to call someone with a different opinion than you weak-minded. Resorting to personal attacks is about as sad as you can get and is typical of someone with no tolerance of anyone else’s views.
I enjoy how you mentioned the “vast majority” of conservative groups that have declared their undieing love for Romney. You have one example, that being James Bopp. What you failed to mention is that Mr. Bopp is currently serving on the Romney campaign. Of course he is going to support him. I wonder what position he was promised in a fictional Romney White House.
I’d love a list of the “majority” of organizations that have pledged support to Romney. I’d venture to guess that this early in the campaign, many have not endorsed anyone quite yet.
For the record, there are several prominant conservatives, including Paul Weyrich, who have been critical of Romney.
But of course you would never even consider mentioning that, because you would have to recognize that other people may actually have an opinion other than yours.
And by the way Jacosta, your “several months ago I was considering X candidate” line really need to be freshened up. If anyone looks at the forums on here, you said on March 16th.
“Several months ago, I was leaning towards John McCain.”
Quite funny.
Second of all - I’m not the only one here who can’t take a joke…as I didn’t take it THAT seriously.
And you really need to re-read my posting above….you misinterpreted a few things the wrong way. I never consider someone with a different opinion than mine as weak-minded - I consider those that will not take the time to investigate, to learn, to educate themselves on matters as being weak-minded. Why do you insist on twisting my words?
You quoted me as saying “vast majority”? Where di I use the term “vast”? I mentioned that, yes, ther is a majority of the Conservative Base that has accepted Romney’s change from pro-choice to pro-life as genuine; I am one of those. I never mentioned above that there were any organizations that have pledged to support Romney - but that there are more “individuals” coming out in support of him than not…as far as, again, believing that he is genuine on his position of pro-life.
While you point out that there may be “several” prominent figures questioning Romney, there are far more outnumbering those “several” who believe in Romney.
Several months ago - I was leaning towards others. Do you want me to be more specific….guess you need me to be? “Several months ago” was before January of this year; after February, and all the in-depth studying and thinking I did towards McCain, Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Huckabee, Brownback, and Romney - I chose Romney as the best, qualified Conservative for ‘08.
It’s poor taste for you to take someone’s words out of context and misquote them.
Can’t we all just get along?
But, dad, he started it! LOL
Yo! Brendan! You maybe wanna…re-think…that ‘McCain’s not done’ yet meme?
After today - STUNNING defections - it seems that the circus is getting ready to fold its tent.
Truly, for an annointed front-runner - AMAZING.
(I just don’t know if I can EVER trust what Katie, Larry and Wolf say ever again…)
I believe that this is the beginning of the end for McCain. He is losing in Iowa and New Hampshire, his national poll numbers are always going down, and top-key people in his organization are either quitting or being fired.
Goodbye, McCain!
I have to admit today’s news didn’t provide the perfect back-up to my argument - but remember in ‘04 John Kerry went through a similar staff shake-up following fundraising woes - and that was even much later in the game than this…now if McCain just had a $6 million mansion to mortgage…
http://www.azconservative.org/McCain_Tribute.htm
This is from McCain’s home state of Arizona.