Zogby Polls in Iowa, NH: H-Train Derailing?

By Contributor Archive

Filed Under Race for White House 2008 on Jan 18 

In the last 24 hours, Zogby International has released polls of likely Iowa caucus-goers and likely New Hampshire primary voters.

In Iowa, it’s Edwards 27, Obama 17, Vilsack16, Clinton 16, nobody else above 3.

In New Hampshire, it’s Obama 23, Clinton 19, Edwards 19, Kerry 5, nobody else above 3.

Notice a theme here? If Hillary is the front-runner, it looks like somebody forgot to tell Iowa and New Hampshire. While national poll numbers are interesting (her numbers are slipping in those polls, also) we don’t hold a national primary. The early states are what matter, which is why the candidates spend all of their time there. A little less than one year out from the Iowa Caucus, Edwards has a lead outside the margin of error, and Clinton is in a three-way tie about 10 points back. In New Hampshire, Obama has the lead, with Clinton and Edwards tied 4 points behind.

Bottom line: Hillary’s not really No. 1 where it matters. She’s probably not No. 2 either.

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