Sure, maybe it’s too early to know, but it seems highly unlikely Kerry can spin his way out of this. You’ve got to see how Kerry slams the troops to believe it. A recap just won’t do this justice. Believe it or not race fans, this is 1000 times juicier than his infamous, “I actually voted for the $87 billion before I voted against it.”

I can see the campaign ads now.

Kerry is spinning this as if to suggest he was referring to Bush, and not the soldiers being stuck in Iraq. Best of luck with that strategy.

The bad news is that Virginia’s democratic candidate for Senate is going to lose his race against republican Senator George Allen. The good news is that he’s going to have much more time in his daily routine to write novels featuring incest and pedophilia. There are some things voters can look past; don’t expect this to be one of them. When faced with the choice between a man who used ridiculously poor judgement in Macacagate and another man who’s made a habit of writing novels that demean women, children and the military, I’m betting the former gets more votes. It’s one thing for Allen to smear Webb with second or third-hand stories and he-said, she-said accounts from his time as Secretary of the Navy. But it’s another to confront him with his own words from his own books.

Oh, and what a nice day for this front page feature in the Washington Post where Webb reminds us he’s a writer first and foremost. Well that sure makes me feel better.

Happy writing, Jim.

Who knew the Washington Post would ever be good for anything other than fish paper? They’ve launched a 2006 midterm madness game that’s quite well constructed and programmed.

Give it a look.

Tom Daschle, the disgraced former Senate Majority leader, who not only gave up the Senate majority under his leadership but even lost his own seat to Republican John Thune in 2004, now predicts that the democrats will take it all!  As reported by the Associated Press:

Tom Daschle predicted on Monday that Democrats will pick up seven U.S. Senate seats this year and said his party needs to “restore the confidence that has been lost about Congress.” [He] also predicted his party would pick up around 25 seats in the U.S. House.

It’s certainly not difficult to predict the same thing you hear every night from the “old” media.  Given the simplicity of his prediction, one has to wonder about the motivation behind his announcement.  Is he simply weighing in on the exhaustive predictions of a Democratic take over? Or is this part of his continuing effort to keep himself viable as a 2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee?   As pointed out by the AP Daschle had visited the all important states of New Hampshire and Iowa this year and he downplays the strength of his potential opponents:

On Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who said Sunday he is considering seeking the nomination, Daschle said it’s “appropriate” he’s thinking about a run. “I think because of the tremendous amount of enthusiasm and support that Sen. Obama has around the country, you’d be foolish not to give it some very careful thought. And I hope he does make a very thoughtful evaluation of whether a race at this point makes sense or not.”

He said New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is not a lock for the nomination.  “I think even Sen. Clinton would tell you that she is not, she is not a candidate yet, and it’s hard to say,” Daschle said. “I don’t think anyone has a lock on it.

These sound strangely like the comments of a man who has already made up his mind.

Well, here I am, Mr. or Mrs. Average American Voter, finally letting the noise from CNN make its way into my consciousness. It looks like I’m going to have to decide about voting pretty soon. The whole Mark (Mike? I can’t remember) Foley thing really stinks but he is not my representative and there are plenty of scoundrels in Washington, aren’t there? Anyway, they all seem to take us and their jobs for granted. What have they done for us lately? Maybe I just won’t vote at all. No, that’s no good. I’ll vote unless something comes up that makes it inconvenient. I will also vote my party because no matter how bad things are, the other side is just as bad or worse. My candidates seem to be OK. I’m just disgusted with the entire process. I say replace them all. Too bad it doesn’t work that way.

I realize that if everyone feels the same way I do the Republicans will keep control of the House and Senate. Does it really matter?

The um, rumor, on why Mark Warner really pulled out of the 2008 nomination race is that he has a Clinton problem.  As reported by Radar, the real reason behind his failure to launch is that he is “trying to skirt a bimbo eruption.”

D.C. insiders are speculating that his surprise pull-out may have been sparked by concerns that alleged past sexual indiscretions could derail his campaign—especially in the midst of the Mark Foley feeding frenzy.

“I can’t believe no one has mentioned his philandering,” a former political aide tells Radar, adding that she herself was subjected to Warner’s advances in the late ’90s and had heard “stories about Mark and many interns.”

“This can’t be isolated. I have to believe this stuff is all over,” a former D.C. consultant tells Radar.

“It would be ironic if the anti-Hillary faction’s best hope turned out to have the same problem as Bill,” the consultant said.

 

WaPo’s Fix has this (and more) to say about Warner’s decision to skip 2008:

The most obvious winner from the Warner news is Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh. Bayh and Warner shared much of the same ideological territory — moderate, consensus builders elected in red states. After helping Gov. Tim Kaine(D) win the governorship in 2005, Warner became the “it” boy of national politics — the candidate seen as most likely to emerge as the alternative to New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton(D).

Warner’s ascent came at the expense of Bayh, who found much of the air sucked out of his candidacy.

No longer. Party insiders say that there was a major behind-the-scenes fight for donors and activists between Bayh and Warner.

Well, that sounds familiar…

Suddenly it feels like Christmas morning! With ’08 news being buried by the midterm elections, and GOP’s fearful projections ranging from a splinter to a full-scale amputation, news that Mark Warner is officially out of the 2008 race for the White House has race fans giddier than Bob Woodward’s banker. A press conference is scheduled for later today. Here’s a snippet from his written statement.

“I know these moments are never going to come again,” Warner said. “This weekend made clear what I’d been thinking about for many weeks — that while politically this appears to be the right time for me to take the plunge, at this point I want to have a real life.

“And while the chance may never come again, I shouldn’t move forward unless I’m willing to put everything else in my life on the back burner,” he said.

Ah yes, a “real life,” the life he left behind before first running for office a decade ago, the life of a factory worker, arising at 5:30, praying his 1987 El Camino would start and driving to the plastics plant on the outskirts of town for a 10-hour shift on the line.

No, wait a second, that wasn’t him, the “real life” he refers to is that of a gazillionaire playing golf, getting paid to sit on corporate boards and watching Squawk Box on CNBC.

Puh-leaze. I get queasy when politicians talk about “real life,” especially politicians with so much money they wouldn’t know “real life” if it came up and bit them on seat of their $200 slacks.

Nevertheless, this is a very significant development in the ’08 race. Warner was thought by many to be a top-tier candidate capable of emerging as the ABH option. (Anybody But Hillary)

Who benefits the most? That’s a no-brainer, and I have one word for you, Evan Bayh. ProFlowers.com. Time to send Warner some chocolates, a few nice Mylar balloons and one of those giant thank you cards. The center of track has just become a heckuvalot less crowded.

What’s wrong with Kansas Pennsylvania? Not as much is wrong with the state as it was a few weeks ago.  The latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll has Santorum knocking on the margin of error.

The latest poll showed 46 percent of voters favoring Casey with 41 percent supporting Santorum, with 13 percent undecided. In August, it was 45 percent for Casey and 39 percent for Santorum, with 16 percent undecided. Borick attributed that slide to the blitz of negative advertising mounted by both Casey and Santorum… The poll, conducted from Oct. 3 to Oct. 8, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

While this is a departure from some other polls, the lesson of polls these days seems to be less about the numbers and more about the momentum.  Santorum is well known for finishing his races well and Casey is notorious for falling apart in the last days.  There seems to be some of that going on here as the Harrisburg paper writes, “Casey, meanwhile, has come under fire for dodging Santorum at a pair of public forums last month. Nor has Casey been aided by a campaign strategy that seems designed to make him purposefully inaccessible.”

The polling average for this race, as posted by Real Clear Politics, still gives the lead to Casey by almost 10 points. But for Santorum, who was once rumored as a potential 2008 candidate, I’d say this race is far from over.
 

The media is buzzing with news of the GOP’s inevitable loss of control in Congress.  Check out the results of these recent media polls:

ABC/WP Poll: Dems Lead GOP 54-41 Percent in Congressional Races

USA Today/ Gallop Poll:  Dems gain big lead: 59-36 %

CBS/NYT Poll: 2006 Congressional Vote: 49% (D) 35% (R)

Is this the perfect storm preceding the Democrat takeover of Congress?  It might be.  But if it is, pollsters shouldn’t depend on faulty data to make their case.  At least in the case of the ABC/ Washington post poll, 41 percent more Democrats were questioned for that survey than Republicans. According to Newsbusters:

The breakdown was: 38 percent Democrats; 27 percent Republicans, and; 31 percent Independents. This was the largest skewing of Democrats to Republicans in a WaPo-ABC News poll since at least April. By contrast, in last month’s poll, the breakdown was 33 percent Democrats, 32 percent Republicans, and 30 percent Independents.

Recent polls show US Senator George Allen man handling his opponent Jim Webb, 48 to 37 percent.  I normally wouldn’t call 11 points a man handling, especially given, the not quite so stratospheric numbers from some other polls.  But given the onslaught of bad press Allen has received from swirling Indian monkeys to drive by racial slurs, can we call an Allen lead anything else? 

Allen broke new ground last week when he aired a state of the union style commercial, viewable on his website, which was aired simultaneously statewide.  The unusual campaign tactic, restored an air of statesmanship to Allen’s campaign that had recently taken serious hits.

While Republicans have seen their generic congressional numbers decline, Allen’s poll numbers never sunk below his opponents and now appear to be strengthening.  The politics of destruction, which appear to have emboldened the national democrats, are not playing well in Virginia. Noted columnist Cal Thomas, describes the political attacks well:

This is politics at its dirtiest and meanest. People wondering why more good men and women don’t run for office have their answer in this piling on of George Allen. If this were a football game, the Democratic team would be penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct and Allen would have an automatic first down. But this is politics and it’s easier to wipe off the mud from a hard tackle than it is to clean yourself up after being struck by political mudballs.

While it appears that the hemorrhaging has stopped, it is a long four weeks until Election Day.  The next big test for this race comes Monday evening, when Allen and Webb debate in the studios of WCVE-TV. This may be Allen’s last opportunity before a statewide audience to show Virginia the difference between himself and Webb.  If the campaign continues to spiral around Allen’s gaffs, his election night could be a nail-bitter.  If he can use this debate to get the race refocused on state and national issues, however, Allen may regain his spot in the likely Republican column.

Libs, Monica and Foley

By

Filed Under General on Oct 7 

I’ve been out of the loop for several days on travel, but I couldn’t let the weekend come and go without weighing in the drunken glee democrats are displaying over the Foley debacle.

I’ll keep it simple. I know a lot of liberals are reading:

A married man, the President of the United States, has sex with an intern (aka: his employee), in his office, lies about it, and democrats say it’s none of our business.

A married man, a Congressman, exchanges crudely inappropriate e-mails and IMs with an underage boy, never has any sexual contact, admits the communcations took place, resigns, and democrats demand leadership resignations, investigations, and a chance to rule the playground next year.

Both are indefensible. But democrats pick and choose their outrage like candy in an overpriced vending machine. It’s typical liberal hypocrisy. This is why only two democrats have occupied the White House in 42 years. And that was two too many.

Nancy Pelosi and her troops have more faces than Tanya Faye Tucker.

Chris Cillizza of the WaPo blogs today that Dr. Bill Frist has landed two sizable whales to his 2008 team:

Frist takes a big step forward among the influential evangelical movement with word that George Seay III, one of the founders of Legacy — a burgeoning group of wealthy and politically minded evangelicals seeking to exert influence in the 2008 presidential election — has signed on as a supporter of the Tennessee senator.

Even still, Cillizza apparently has a tough time seeing the good Doctor emerging as a major player during campaign ’08:

Frist has largely flown under the radar ever since, and although we remain skeptical that he will emerge as a major player for the Republican nomination, his prospects have improved.

He’s more polite than I am. I think Frist has a better chance appearing on Grey’s Anatomy than on a 2008 ballot.

OK, so it’s not exactly a full-length feature on the hottest political site on the web, but all press is good press, right?

QT News You Can Use:

• The momentum tracking of the top 10 potential Democratic presidential candidates at politicalderby.com: Even, Up, Up, Down, Up, Up, Down, Even, Even, Even.

• The momentum tracking of the top 10 potential Republican presidential candidates: Even, Up, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Even, Down.

The trend is apparent.