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HT to Tom Cohan for passing along Mitts for Mitt. Any suggestions for other Mitts the site might be missing?

One of the great things about a primary is the blatant pandering. Yesterday, Gingrich literally promised Florida voters the moon. Today, Romney is offering them Cuba. Granted, there is a good segment of Floridian voters who have made it absolutely clear that they don’t want Cuba through, you know, leaving Cuba and coming here. However, Romney figures they can have Cuba back all to themselves if his plan comes to fruition.

Romney’s ingenious policy? Wait for the Castro brothers to die. That’s literally the height of his creativity. Granted, this has been the policy of the United States since President Castro kicked out our sugar plantations and fruit companies for essentially using the islands rural populace as slave labor, but it’s bound to work eventually! Romney went on to claim that Obama’s policy, which he dubbed appeasement, of letting Cubans visit their relatives in Cuba and send them money for food has, somehow, helped President Raul Castro stay in power.
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Who won the debate last night? CNN says Mitt Romney gained the most and Rick Santorum had his “strongest performance so far”. Politico is currently leading with “Newt’s no-show debate“. FOX calls it Romney’s “best debate performance“. Meanwhile, as Jason mentioned on FOX this morning, Ron Paul was marginalized once again (we will have the clip cut and posted later today).

Will this scenario mirror South Carolina, leading to a big Romney win or will Florida provide a different result?

Other topics, as always, are open for discussion in the open thread.

The final debate before Florida voters make their choices is tonight on CNN. It is also streaming at their website.

Newt Gingrich’s two debate wins prior to South Carolina solidified his later victory at the polls. Mitt Romney’s strong performance in the crowd-free debate earlier this week has given him a boost in the polls taken since. With this recent evidence of the debates having so much sway with voters their importance has increased significantly. The candidates are clearly aware of this, so watch for sparks to fly early and often.

Welcome to Jarret Herrmann, a new contributor to PD!

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, campaigning in Florida detailed his plans to, among other things, colonize the moon and declare the celestial body the 51st state after building, and I believe this is the exact quote, “a sweet-awesome moon fort”. He then challenged the other candidates in the Florida debate by boldly declaring “Everything but the podium is lava.”

In all seriousness, this is a needless provocation towards another space race with infinitely higher stakes at a time when the U.S. can absolutely not afford to fund such an outlandish competition. Could we make it to the moon, and have a sustainable colony there by 2020? Absolutely! If we work together with our allies and, I’m not afraid to suggest this as a Socialist, share. Yes, it might seem tempting to point up at the sky and declare “Dibs” but it’s both childish and insane.
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Michael Steele calls the idea of another Republican entering the race “outright stupid”, as there are only 13 states’ ballots that remain open.

Things aren’t going so well for Newt Gingrich as his relationship to and his opinion of Ronald Reagan who he has undeniably hitched his entire campaign to has come increasingly under fire. Additionally, Gingrich admitted to making up part of his defense on the allegations presented by his second ex-wife. It turns out, only Gingrich’s daughters were offered to ABC as character witnesses.

It’s probably no coincidence that Gingrich’s poll numbers are declining in Florida while Mitt Romney’s are improving. Romney is ahead in the two three most recent Florida polls, including moving from eight points behind Gingrich to eight points ahead in the last two Insider Advantage polls. This movement is consistent with what has been seen over the past couple of weeks where the perceived debate winner gains a bump in the polls. The final debate opportunity will be tonight at 8:00 pm EST, and of course, we will have an open thread available.

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Note: Click graphic to enlarge.

Edit: The Rasmussen Florida poll released this morning has very little impact on this data, as it confirms the most recent results.

The Florida Composite poll shows a dead heat between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. As the debates are clearly having a significant sway on the undecided voters, look for significant movement in polls released within two days of tonight’s contest.

Rick Santorum appears to be bottoming out. If he finished fourth to Ron Paul, there seems to be no reason why he should continue. Certainly, what little contribution money he has coming in will dry up faster than the pet rock went out of style.

Ron Paul chugs on. But it won’t do him much good in Florida, as it is a winner take all state, so he is focusing on the next caucus contests in Nevada and Maine where the delegates are awarded by proportion of the vote.




I resurrected the Photo of the Day for this instant classic:











The Associated Press ‘fact checks‘ last night’s State of the Union address, beginning its article with: “It was a wish list, not a to-do list”.

Recent data shows that ‘America hates Newt Gingrich’. This is not the profile of an electable candidate.

Jake Tapper discusses how the Republican race could very well continue until June. The debate is whether the candidates brutally beating each other for several months will lead to a stronger candidate or simply write the script for President Obama’s campaign team.

CNN’s Roland Martin says: ‘So long to the party of family values‘. The sentiment is correct. Not long after South Carolina threw Mark Sanford to the curb, it picks Newt Gingrich in a landslide when it had three other options without the same type of ‘values’ baggage.
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President Obama will deliver the State of the Union address, as required by the Constitution (though not necessary annually) beginning at 9:00 pm EST. As usual, it will be broadcast on so many stations, it will be nearly impossible to miss.

We will also discuss the Republican rebuttal here as well.




Welcome to the latest edition of PoliticalDerby.com's 2012 Power Rankings, the original tracking service of the race for the White House. The rankings are updated as circumstances warrant and are compiled by our Editors using wire reports, polls, campaign staffer scuttlebutt and confidential tips. The rankings may not be reprinted or quoted in any form without attribution to PoliticalDerby.com.

The GOP Horses

Power Ranking	The Horse	Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Newt Gingrich		Thus far, debates are the biggest story of this primary cycle. They turned Rick Perry from a front runner to a bumbling fool and lifted Newt from has-been to front runner. An interesting exercise in physics would be comparing the size of Newt's head from the first debate to the most recent. If he wins the nomination, he should give John King any job in the administration he wants.
	Mitt Romney		Not releasing his tax returns before South Carolina - or simply having a better answer to the question - may have been the biggest blunder since Gerry Ford declared "There is no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe, and there will never be under a Ford administration.” Everyone outside of the Gingrich family still believe that Romney remains better positioned for a long 50-state campaign, but the inevitability label is shredded.
	Rick Santorum		Leading up to South Carolina, Santorum was the Tim Tebow of the GOP race. He exceeded expectations in his first contest, got evangelicals excited about his chances, and was promptly crushed by a pretty boy from New England. He did beat Ron Paul in South Carolina and leads him in Florida, but Paul undoubtedly has a better plan and structure to win delegates moving forward. If he believes the nominee should be an ABR, is it time to step aside and endorse Newt?
	Ron Paul		His campaign to win the nomination is effectively over. Moving on, his objective is pile up delegates and to promote his agenda at the GOP convention. Paul has been completely shortchanged in debate speaking time, though even he admitted his speaking style for said debates isn't exactly flattering. Some think he's a Kingmaker, but many Paul supporters say it's the good doctor or nothing.

Note: Click graphic to enlarge.

The initial Florida Political Derby Composite release mirrors the volatility of the Republican race. It is exaggerated by very few polls haven been taken in Florida prior to early January.

Rick Santorum’s jump in popularity from his Iowa performance is clear. Prior to Iowa, he polled consistently around 1% in the Sunshine state. Mitt Romney’s popularity grew consistently from the beginning of December, until the South Carolina blowout brought Newt Gingrich back from the dead.

Gingrich is beating Romney in the last three polls taken by an average of 7 points, a dramatic shift after falling behind Romney by an average of 19 points in every prior January poll.

The National Journal says Newt Gingrich struggled without the crowd to back him up last night. It also says that ‘Angry Newt’ took the night off. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney was on the constant attack which received mixed reviews, at best. Romney released his tax records and in the non-shocker to anyone who pays attention, he is rather wealthy. This morning Politico ran ‘Five Reasons‘ why Romney’s tax records matter. Finally, just in case you missed it, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul also stood on the stage last night.

Note: We will have an open comment thread up for tonight’s State of the Union address at 9:00 pm EST.

How would you rank tonight’s debate performances? Who were the winners and losers? Will this debate have an effect on the race like the one six days ago in South Carolina did? Did Brian Williams show any personality whatsoever other than at the very end when he said “Go Bulls!”

Can Newt Gingrich win the nomination by continuing to dominate the debates? Will Mitt Romney seem a bit more prepared this time and will he continue to attack as he has been on the trail since the South Carolina debacle? What is Rick Santorum’s purpose here? Ron Paul won’t get a fair amount of air time, but can he be good enough in the time he does get?

Ron Paul reports on Facebook that his son Rand Paul has been detained by the TSA at the Nashville airport. Here are the details.

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